7 Things On My Mind In Crypto
Welcome back, anon!
If you’re still hanging around on crypto Twitter in this depressing bear market, you probably aren't wired together correctly.
No, I'm just kidding. But if you're still here that's a sign you're thinking long-term, that you understand that markets move in cycles and that new bull markets will arrive (at least one day).
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1) The Ethereum Merge vs. EIP-1559 price action
I'm sure you're pretty tired of reading stuff about what the merge is etc., so let's jump directly to my points here.
The merge has been talked about as a bullish catalyst for months, but when it finally happened the price dropped over 10%.
Was it a sell-the-news event?
First of all, let's don't forget that we had a rally in the $ETH price from $880 to $2,020 from June to August.
Secondly, remember the correlation with the stock market?
Look at the charts below.
On the charts above we can see the same time frame (1D)-chart. The correlation between Nasdaq and crypto has been almost 80%. So it's not very surprisingly that Ethereum made a run from the June bottom and until mid August (because stocks did too).
What about EIP-1559?
Ethereum Improvement Proposal 1559 was implemented on August 5th, 2021.
As we can see below Ethereum rallied almost 170% from the July bottom last year and until the current ATH in November 2021.
This time, however, the stock market also had a huge run in the same period. Therefore it's natural to think that $ETH got "help" from the equity markets.
I'm not going to post the Nasdaq chart again because it looks very similar.
My point is that Ethereum in many ways behaves like a leveraged tech stock.
2) Is There Any Alpha Left In The Crypto Market?
As a side note, what is alpha anyway? Alpha refers to excess returns earned on investment above the benchmark return.
If we use S&P 500 as an example, alpha is excess returns compared to this stock market index. If S&P 500 returned 10% one year, but your portfolio returned 15%, that's an alpha of +5.
You've probably seen it on Twitter already.
No one is posting threads anymore. No heavy shilling of projects. Less activity.
The only projects I've seen being promoted heavily lately are SWEAT and GMX.
My thoughts about $SWEAT below:
Also, what I found pretty hilarious is that the founder of Sweatcoin (Oleg) felt the need to defend the negative comments in the thread.
My personal opinion is that founders should focus on what they do best, not argue with strangers on the internet.
See for yourself below:
Anyway, there are lots of building behind the scenes. And several projects are delaying their launch in wait for better times.
Crypto is not dead. It's just a break (in a way). Now is the time to research and talk to teams, builders, and devs.
Position carefully for the next run.
3) But Who Is Building In A Bear Market?
Glad you asked, anon.
See this tweet from Patrick below:
It's definitely worth a try :)
4) About life and embracing your natural curiosity
I've never had a master plan. I've tried so many different career paths and I've never found one I wanted to stay in for 40+ years.
Instead, I followed my curiosity. I've always followed my interests and dived deep.
Money-wise, this has probably not been the best decision. In fact, I had my first "real" job at 29. Don't misunderstand me, I've worked different jobs since I was 15. But the jobs were fairly easy, eg. cashier at the supermarket.
My first "real" job was as a civil engineer. Up until that point, I had basically studied a lot of different subjects at the university. Economics, marketing, nutrition, chemistry, math, and in the end, engineering.
So many credit points. And most of them I've used for nothing. When I reflect on this today I know the answer to why I postponed going into the 9-5 life. It's because I so easily get bored of doing the same thing over and over again.
Don't misunderstand me, I love to work, and in fact, when I find something I like I can pull 14 hours/day for weeks without getting distracted (probably not that healthy, but it is what it is).
The process is always the same. I get good at something. And then I go deeper. Then I start falling in love with it. Eventually, months/years later I get interested in something new and I stop being interested in what I was interested in initially.
I've always felt alone in feeling this way. Until I started digging deep on the Internet. I made a blog and luckily for me people found it interesting. Here I found strangers that were interested in the exact same things as me.
Then I found Twitter, and being a part of that community is simply amazing.
I don't know what I'm trying to say here. Just that I'm really grateful for meeting so many great people online.
If you're reading this as a lurker (only consuming, never sharing anything yourself), why not try to share something from your own journey? I can almost guarantee you feel it will be worth it. It's the easiest way to find like-minded people. It's also a way to keep you up to date on a subject, and a way to hold yourself accountable for your goals.
5) A good thread about crypto trading
Markets are cyclical.
Markets tend to trend only 20% of the time and range 80%, this is very important to understand cause they have completely different approaches.
If you feel like you know the very basics of trading, you should definitely read the thread below.
It will help you understand markets better and hopefully increase your PnL.
Additional tweets I Enjoyed Lately
1) Quant Trading
A massive PDF document by @quant_arb if you want to take your trading journey a little further than the rest.
In his document, he shares resources both for beginners and more advanced degens.
2) Interesting thread about working in web3
3) Anti-aging
Yes, it's my own tweet. But check out the more than 350+ replies from my readers.
Definitely, lots of interesting stuff there if you're interested in living longer/looking younger.
Okay, that's it for now.
See you next week, anon!