Manta - is the token worth buying?
Hey, friends!
Since there has been a lot of hype around Manta lately I decided to share some thoughts on it.
This is not financial advice, this is just me speculating about what might happen.
Hint: JTO-pattern?
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Manta - is the token worth buying?
Manta Network isn't just another blockchain, it's a multi-modular ecosystem built for privacy-powered applications. Think faster transactions, lower fees, and the ability to keep your financial data confidential.
Manta in fact has two distinct chains: Manta Atlantic and Manta Pacific.
We will be talking about Manta Pacific in this newsletter (the L2). Manta Atlantic is an L1 chain on Polkadot.
Manta Pacific is an Ethereum L2 that was created specifically for zero-knowledge EVM-native apps. It enables these applications to achieve excellent performance at low transaction costs.
Do we need more L2s? Well, Manta is unique in the way that it is the first to use Celestia for its Data Availability layer.
By utilizing Celestia for its DA network, Manta pays significantly less, thereby increasing its margins and profits. As an example, Arbitrum spends almost 8 figures monthly to post data on-chain.
I wrote about EIP-4844 in my latest newsletter, and after the implementation, the gas fees will be even lower for L2s. So do we really need it?
Well, the truth is that even though EIP-4844 will help, it won’t even come close to Celestia’s DA. Furthermore, Manta is made for ZK applications.
What’s up with ZK anyway? Zero-knowledge (ZK) proofs are clever cryptographic tools that prove you have something (like money) without revealing what it is. This unlocks a world of possibilities, from private DeFi & NFTs to secure identity management.
The $MANTA token
Max supply is 1bn tokens.
TGE unlocks: 251m tokens (25.1%). This means that 251m tokens will be circulating from day 1.
It’s a 3,4% unlock on March 1st, so nothing “big” in the next 1,5 months.
What is $MANTA worth? Here are stats from Coingecko.
To estimate $MANTA’s worth, let’s look at OP and ARB.
TVL for ARB: $2,6b
TVL for OP: $0.89b
TVL for MANTA: $0.42b
FDV to TVL ratio for ARB: 21.75B / 2.6 = 8.37
FDV to TVL ratio for OP: 15.18 / 0.891 = 17.04
FDV and price for MANTA if the ratio is similar to ARB:
TVL of MANTA * ARB Ratio = $420M * 8.37 ≈ $3.40B FDV / 1bn supply = $3.40
FDV and price for MANTA if the ratio is similar to OP:
TVL of MANTA * ARB Ratio = $420M * 17.04 ≈ $6.92B FDV / 1bn supply = $6.92
$MANTA is trading right now at $2.16. Does that mean that it is undervalued? No, IMO. First of all, this calculation is solely based on TVL. Secondly, it’s only like 2 months ago since ARB was trading at 10B FDV. That would indicate a fair price of $1.70 for MANTA. And, Arbitrum and Optimism have been around for a while already, and enjoy these network effects.
In my opinion I think we will see something similar to JTO:
Hype in the start that may last for some days or a week, then a downtrend before people realize it is undervalued.
I bought a starter position at $2.18. Don’t have any plan for this yet, but if the price continues lower I might scoop up some more.
Btw, there have been some rumors of price manipulation of the MANTA token from the inside on day 1 which might keep people from buying it, see screenshot below:
I guess that’s it for today!
Happy trading and good luck with buying all the dips in 2024!
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